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In this report, Superforecasters spotlight key indicators that G7 decision-makers should monitor over the next decade to provide early warning of the threats that climate change poses to global stability and human security.

This scenario-based analysis explores four possible future climate security scenarios for the Levant, in order to anticipate future risks and identify priority policy areas. It looks particularly at how different degrees of technological availability and international cooperation could lead to different outcomes in the region.

Weathering Risk’s Climate Risk Profile: Iraq provides forward-looking data on the climatic situation in Iraq with the goal of supporting resilience-oriented long-term planning. The paper summarizes projected climate parameters and related sectoral impacts under two different emissions scenarios from now until 2080.

Climate, Peace and Security Assessment: Mali is the first full-length national case study using the Weathering Risk methodology, combining state-of-the-art climate impacts data with on-the-ground conflict analysis. It provides a ground-breaking level of detail into a country long seen as a hotspot for compound climate change and conflict risks.