Climate Impact Profile: Sri Lanka

Sri Lanka – a teardrop-shaped island country located in the Indian Ocean – covers an area of 65,525 km2, roughly the size of Ireland. It has a hot tropical climate with little annual variation in temperature, except further inland and at higher altitudes. Over the last 50 years, mean temperature and annual precipitation nationwide have been increasing. 

Key climate trends:

• Under the high emissions scenario, mean temperature rises nationwide by a best estimate of 0.55°C in the short term and 1.07°C in the medium term. 
• Heat Index days above 35°C will increase by roughly 1.5 months per year in the short term and four months per year in the medium term.
• Projections show that net precipitation over the Yala agricultural season indicate that existing water scarcity risks may continue in the Dry Zone under the high-emissions scenario. 

Projected sectoral impacts:

• Human Health: Climate-related health risks, including heat stress and vector-borne diseases, are projected to worsen. 
• Flood and Droughts: Sri Lanka faces both high flood risks and severe water scarcity due to uneven regional and seasonal precipitation, which are expected to intensify. 
• Food and Agriculture: Expected temperature increases will affect liveable conditions for cattle, dairy animals, poultry, swine, fish and agriculture. These changes pose high risks to food security, especially for rural and low-income agricultural labourers. 
• Human Displacement: Worsening climate-related impacts can threaten households previously uprooted by violence and conflict, which already have weakened social networks and livelihood opportunities. 
• Critical Infrastructure and Economy: Sri Lanka is highly vulnerable to GDP loss from precipitation-driven flooding and extreme heat. This poses high risk to the Colombo-Galle transit corridor, which is important for trade, tourism and service sector activities. 
• Ecosystems: Forests cover approximately 30 percent of Sri Lanka and help reduce flood and landslide risks. Risks to biodiversity and ecosystems vary by region. These risks include increasing vulnerability of already threatened species, wetlands and fisheries.  
• Coastal Zones: Projected sea level rise amplifies coastal flooding and storm surge from extreme weather events and risks of erosion and salt water intrusion in wetland habitats. Increasing sea surface temperatures threaten fish and livelihoods reliant on deep sea fishing.