Africa Climate Security Risk Assessment

To assess how climate change is and will continue to affect peace and security in Africa, the African Union Peace and Security Council (AU-PSC) requested this report. Led by the African Union Commission Department for Political Affairs, Peace and Security (AUC-PAPS) and adelphi and implemented with co-authors from various regional governmental and non-governmental organisations, the ACRA is the most comprehensive effort to date to understand climate change risks on African peace and security. Based on the ACRA, the African Union is currently developing a Common African Position on climate change, peace and security.

The ACRA provides an in-depth analysis of key climate security risks from a continental perspective and emerging good practices to address them. This comparative analysis is based on regional assessments for Northern Africa, Western Africa, Central Africa, Eastern Africa and Southern Africa that include the main climate security risk pathways for each region and regional responses and good practices. An additional focus is put on transregional geographies, in particular African island states, the Congo and Lake Chad Basin, transboundary waters, and the Sahel. The report outlines:

• 11 insights on climate change, peace and security in Africa
• Regional climate security risk pathways
• Existing responses and good practices
• 6 key recommendations

Download the regional chapters for Northern Africa, Western Africa, Central Africa, Eastern Africa and Southern Africa. 

View all ACRA infographics here.

Northern Africa

Water insufficiency, food insecurity, fossil fuel dependency and altered patterns of human mobility continue to destabilise the Northern African region, adding pressure on its already scarce resources and driving further tensions between communities. The Northern African chapter illustrates these specific pathways that translate climate pressures and structural fragilities into potential security risks while also looking at existing endeavours to cope, withstand and respond to climate-relates security risks.

Click here to download the regional chapter.

 

Eastern Africa ​​​​​​

Despite its richness in natural resources, Eastern Africa remains highly affected by ethnic and resource-driven communal conflicts. The Eastern Africa chapter discusses how the impacts of climate and environmental change adds to the roster of security risks that contribute to violence and conflict through natural resource competition, food and livelihood insecurity, coastal and maritime insecurity, changing mobility patterns and armed groups exploitation. The chapter also examines responses by regional, national and community-level initiatives.

Click here to download the regional chapter.

Southern Africa

Southern Africa is one of Africa’s most disaster-prone regions. Coupled with structural fragility, population growth and marginalisation, environmental shocks could potentially contribute to severe security risks. The Southern Africa chapter depicts how climate and environmental pressures could turn violent through disaster-related livelihood and food insecurity, human mobility, land and water access and use and weak governance of natural resources. Responses to these multifaceted risks should be immediate, inclusive and holistic.

Click here to download the regional chapter.

Central Africa

Intra-state conflict, armed groups and climate pressures are undermining Central Africa’s ability to tap into its natural and mineral wealth. The Central Africa chapter explores climate-related impacts on livelihood and food insecurity, proliferation of armed and criminal groups, human mobility and loss of biodiversity and environmental degradation. These pathways could lead to intensified human insecurity and violence in the region, necessitating a holistic and integrated response on the regional, national and local levels.

Click here to download the regional chapter.

Western Africa

The dynamism of West Africa’s political landscape, compounded by surges in violent extremism and increased competition over natural resources are shifting the geopolitical relations in the region. The Western Africa chapter provides context-specific explanation of how climate stressors can contribute to these dynamics through food insecurity, proliferation of armed groups, and changes in migratory patterns particularly rural-urban migration to West African cities. These pathways can contribute to violence and conflict if not addressed in a proactive and anticipatory manner.

Click here to download the regional chapter.