Weathering Risk Methodology Paper

The new and unique Weathering Risk Methodology provides decision-makers and practitioners across all sectors with a comprehensive and scalable research approach for climate-related security risks.
An aerial view of desert sand dunes
© Sam Wermut; unsplash

Ensuring that we look forwards, not just back, Weathering Risk combines state-of-the-art quantitative and qualitative assessments and scenario-based foresight methods in an innovative and replicable way. The aim is to identify risks and prioritise entry points for action to promote sustainable peace and prevent the emergence and escalation of conflict linked to climate change impacts.

Specifically, this assessment methodology will:

  • Integrate quantitative and qualitative methods to climate-security analysis; 
  • Include innovative climate impact data, conflict analysis and scenario methods;
  • Be flexible in application in terms of geography and depth of analysis, and
  • Be forward looking.

The Weathering Risk approach consists of five steps:

  1. Climate impact analysis
  2. Contextual analysis of climate-related security risks
  3. Foresight and scenario planning: consultations and expert judgement elicitation
  4. Machine Learning based assumption testing and validation process
  5. Identification of response
An infographic describing the Weathering Risk methodology
© adelphi