Non-State Armed Groups Operating in the Climate–Environment–Conflict Nexus: Recent Research Findings and Policy Responses

A decade after adelphi's 2016 report first mapped the links between climate change and non-state armed groups (NSAGs), this discussion paper, developed jointly by adelphi and UNIDIR, revisits that analysis in light of a substantially expanded evidence base. Drawing on this research, the paper distils how climate and environmental pressures interact with conflict dynamics and sets out evidence-based policy responses. The paper covers:

• Climate and environmental risk pathways, covering how climate change compounds pre-existing vulnerabilities and fragility in which NSAGs proliferate, how armed groups actively exploit climate-driven hardship to recruit and retain members, how NSAGs strategically leverage climate-induced disasters to operate more effectively, and how some groups engage in environmental governance for tactical or strategic reasons.
• Differential and localised impacts, examining how gender, age, livelihood and displacement status shape distinct experiences of climate, environmental and conflict risk, and how these dimensions remain under-addressed in research and policy.
• Risks of poorly designed responses, documenting how siloed security, environmental and development interventions that lack conflict and climate sensitivity, such as militarised counter-insurgency restrictions or anti-deforestation enforcement, can inadvertently drive re-recruitment and deepen grievances.
• Considerations for a more integrated response, setting out priorities for multi-directional sensitivity between climate, conflict and development programming, genuinely cross-sectoral and multi-level integration, continuous assessment and learning, and recognition of differential, localised impacts.
• The way forward, proposing an action agenda across three stages, deepening the evidence base, building more integrated and inclusive responses, and establishing institutional conditions for integrated action, including a three-stage model of contextualised risk assessment, integrated implementation and systematic knowledge-sharing proposed jointly by adelphi and UNIDIR.