Climate, Peace and Environmental Resilience in the Asia-Pacific Region

Home to approximately 60 per cent of the global population, the Asia-Pacific region faces some of the most diverse and complex climate-related security risks globally. Regional cooperation will be essential to avert the worst impacts of the crisis on populations. In addition, tackling shared risks in solidarity provides a key opportunity to enhance the Asia-Pacific region’s collective strength.

Supported by the Republic of Korea, this report analyses climate-related risks to peace, stability and development across five key subregions: Pacific Island Countries, South Asia, Central Asia and Afghanistan, Southeast Asia, and East Asia. It identifies both region-specific and cross-cutting entry points for action, offering a practical framework to enhance climate, peace and environmental resilience across the Asia-Pacific region.

Key insights include:

Pacific Island Countries

• Land availability and usability are threatened by climate change, particularly by rising sea levels, with risk of submergence.
• Disasters are costing billions in economic damages, with climate and environmental hazards expected to significantly undermine incomes.
• Climate-induced migration and displacement are increasing, with relocation likely necessary for significant numbers of Pacific Islanders.

South Asia

• Climate change, environmental degradation and political tensions could exacerbate competition for transboundary resources, straining fragile interstate relations and risking conflict.
• Changing weather patterns are creating significant, adverse effects on agricultural sectors, undermining livelihoods and food security.
• Climate-induced migration and displacement will continue to rise, with migrants and IDPs facing further risks.
• Uptakes in critical mineral mining could boost economies but also drive instability and insecurity.

Central Asia and Afghanistan

• Climate change, environmental degradation and infrastructure decay are increasing competition for transboundary water resources, leading to conflict.
• Changing river flows, drought, and other climate and environmental hazards are likely to severely impact agricultural sectors, undermining livelihoods, food security and increasing migration.
• Climate and environmental impacts on livelihoods could see farmers turn to illicit economies, fuelling insecurity and conflict.
• Critical mineral reserves hold potential for economic development as well as geopolitical, social and environmental risks.

Southeast Asia

• Extreme weather events are likely to affect millions annually, seeing knock-on security impacts in fragile and conflict-affected contexts.
• Increased temperatures, environmental degradation and exploitation could increase conflict over fish stocks.
• Reductions in water availability in rivers could see widespread impacts on livelihoods and food security.
• Critical mineral production threatens adverse social and environmental impacts.

East Asia

• Extreme weather events and disasters are likely to increase regionally, with the greatest risks for the most vulnerable.
• Critical mineral supply chains, necessary to fuel the green-energy transition, can also present challenges.

The report outlines three priority action areas to enhance climate, peace and environmental resilience across the region at large:

1. Ensure strategies to develop climate, peace and environmental resilience are tailored to local, national and subregional contexts.
2. Promote interstate cooperation to overcome climate-related risks and enhance regional strength.
3. Broaden the approach to climate-related risks and actions to overcome them in international institutions.