Climate Impact Profile: Syria

Situated in the eastern Mediterranean, Syria’s diverse topography ranges from coastal plains and mountain ranges in the west, including the Al Ansariyyah and Anti-Lebanon mountains, across interior plateaus and the agriculturally significant Fertile Crescent along the Euphrates River in the northeast, to the vast arid Badia steppe in the east. Syria’s climate is predominantly semi-arid to arid, becoming increasingly continental further inland. However, along the Mediterranean coast conditions are more humid, with a climate characterised by hot, dry summers and cool, wet winters.

Key climate trends:

• Mean annual and seasonal temperatures are projected to increase significantly across Syria by mid-century, with the greatest warming in the eastern interior and during summer. Extreme or very high heat risks are expected across most of the country from the near term onwards. 
• Overall mean precipitation is projected to decline under SSP3-7.0, with the greatest decreases during winter and spring. 
• Floods and droughts: Syria faces very high drought risk and considerable flood risk. Drought is projected to intensify by mid-century, while riverine flood risk is projected to further increase in northwestern Syria. 
• Coastal zones: Syria’s 183 km Mediterranean coastline faces increasing risks from sea level rise. Sea levels are projected to rise by 23 cm by mid-century and could reach 67 cm by the end of the century under SSP3-7.0.

Projected sectoral impacts:

• Human health: Heat stress, vector-borne and water-borne diseases, air pollution are projected to worsen over the near and medium term. Rising temperatures will intensify heat-related illnesses and mortality, particularly in the interior plains, Euphrates River Valley and northeast. Hotter and drier conditions and more frequent and intense sand and dust storms also may raise the number of chronic respiratory illnesses nationwide. 
• Food and agriculture: Rising temperatures, declining precipitation, drought and conflict threaten agricultural livelihoods and food security. Reduced Euphrates River flows, groundwater overextraction and land degradation may further reduce crop production.
• Critical infrastructure and economy: Climate risks will place additional pressure on damaged infrastructure and Syria’s post-conflict economy. Drought episodes alone could cause average GDP losses of up to 0.8% per year, making climate-resilient reconstruction and economic diversification urgent priorities.
• Human displacement: Worsening climate-related impacts compound existing displacement pressures. By the end of 2024, an estimated 7.4 million people remained internally displaced, with many facing disproportionate exposure to flooding and geological hazards.
• Ecosystems: Syria’s terrestrial, freshwater and marine ecosystems face growing risks from warming, drought, wildfire, land degradation, invasive species and rising sea surface temperatures.