Climate Impact Profile: South Caucasus

The South Caucasus is a diverse region comprised of three countries – Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan – located on the Caucasian Isthmus at the crossroads between the Middle East (Türkiye to the southwest and Iran to the southeast), southeastern Europe (the Russian Federation to the north), the Black Sea (to the west) and the Caspian Sea (to the east). The region's complex climatic zones help shape the globally important Caucasus Ecoregion, which boasts exceptional biodiversity across its terrestrial and aquatic habitats, many of which span political boundaries and remain under-protected. Its varied landscape provides vital ecosystem services and hold profound cultural, spiritual and economic value. 

Key climate trends:

• Mean annual and seasonal temperatures are projected to increase significantly by mid-century, rising at uneven rates across the region.
• Average annual national precipitation may slightly increase by mid-century under SSP1-2.6, while SSP3-7.0 projects substantial decreases.
• Flood and Droughts: The three countries simultaneously face high flood and moderate-to-extreme water stress risks due to rising temperatures affecting alpine glaciers and snowpack, changes in precipitation patterns and soil moisture, growing water demand, and reduced transboundary river flows.
• Coastal Zones: Georgia's Black Sea coastline, which is vital for trade and ecosystem services, is at significant risk from sea level rise. In contrast, the Caspian Sea is expected to experience declining water levels under both scenarios, threatening coastal infrastructure, food security and local economies.

Projected sectoral impacts:

• Human Health: Heat stress and vector-, food- and water-borne diseases are likely to worsen over the near and medium term.
• Food and Agriculture: Rising temperatures and shifting precipitation patterns are increasing extreme heat risks, water demand and scarcity, leading to reduced overall crop yields and threatening food security across the region. In addition, livestock production – a significant component of GDP in both Armenia and Georgia – is adversely affected, undermining local livelihoods.
• Human Displacement: Years of episodic conflict and violence in the South Caucasus have resulted in high levels of internal displacement, leaving many households in need of additional social, economic and psychological support.
• Critical Infrastructure and Economy: Economic activities and infrastructure in the South Caucasus are increasingly threatened by extreme temperatures, droughts and flooding, which also heighten geological hazards such as landslides and mudslides.
• Ecosystems: The Caucasus Ecoregion is a global biodiversity hotspot – including globally unique plant species and extensive forests. It faces threats such as shifting forest composition, expanding desertification, and the loss of high mountain and endemic habitats.