Climate Impact Profile: Dinder National Park, Sudan

Dinder National Park lies in southeastern Sudan along the border with Ethiopia and spans Gedaref, Sennar and Blue Nile states. It is one of Sudan’s most significant protected areas, with savanna woodland, riverine and wetland ecosystems and a network of more than 40 permanent and seasonal wetlands known as mayas. The park covers nearly 10,300 km² and supports elephants, hippos, Tora hartebeest, Nile crocodiles and around 250 bird species. Established in 1935, DNP became a UNESCO Biosphere Reserve in 1974.

The Dinder and Rahad rivers flow westwards from the Ethiopian Highlands through and around the park, sustaining wetlands, wildlife and local livelihoods. Communities in and around DNP rely on rainfed and gerif cultivation, livestock raising and the collection of forest and non forest timber products. These livelihoods are highly exposed to rainfall variability, while land use change, overgrazing, deforestation and conflict place additional pressure on ecosystems and natural resources.

Key climate trends

• Temperatures: Observed records from 1971 to 2020 show significant warming across southeastern Sudan. In Sennar State, mean annual temperature increased by 0.36°C per decade, while average annual precipitation declined by 73 mm per decade. Temperatures are projected to rise significantly under both emissions scenarios, with the largest increases under SSP3-7.0 over the medium and long term.
• Extreme heat: Under SSP3-7.0, Sennar State’s annual number of Heat Index days above 35°C is projected to increase by a best estimate of 67 days by the medium term and 109 days by the long term. Tropical nights above 26°C are projected to increase by 72 nights by the medium term and 115 nights by the long term. The highest combined heat risks are projected across Gedaref and Sennar states, particularly in northern and western DNP.
• Precipitation: Median annual precipitation is projected to increase, particularly during peak rainy season and late autumn months. However, models show mixed agreement over the near and medium term, and high interannual variability may produce more frequent and intense dry spells. Under SSP3-7.0, precipitation in Sennar State could increase most strongly in November, suggesting a possible shift towards later seasonal rainfall.
• Floods: The Dinder and Rahad river systems face increasing flood risks in parts of their catchments, although patterns vary between subbasins and model agreement remains mixed over the near and medium term. Flash flooding along the Rahad River can reach depths of up to 80 cm, while overflow events in northern DNP may reach depths of up to 3 m.
• Droughts and water stress: Rising temperatures will increase evaporation, reducing the amount of water that remains available for soils, ecosystems and livelihoods. DNP is likely to experience alternating very dry and very wet periods, with medium to high interannual water supply variability across the Dinder and Rahad catchments. Dry season water stress is expected to remain particularly high along the Khor Kenana and Khor Abu Al Hasan.

Projected sectoral impacts

• Ecosystems: DNP’s biodiversity faces increasing habitat loss, degradation and fragmentation as rising temperatures and rainfall variability intensify competition for water and other resources. More intense peak season rainfall and late season precipitation may increase high flow events, while repeated drought and flood cycles can accelerate wetland sedimentation and degradation. The capacity of the mayas to absorb excess runoff may decline under extreme conditions. These pressures compound existing impacts from deforestation, land use change, overharvesting, overgrazing and grassland fires, particularly around the Khor Gelagu and in the park’s buffer and transition zones.
• Human health: Heat stress, vector borne diseases and water borne diseases are generally projected to worsen. Outdoor workers, older people, children, pregnant women and people with chronic diseases face disproportionate risks from increasing heat exposure. Changes in temperature, rainfall and flooding may shift the timing and distribution of diseases including malaria, Rift Valley fever, dengue and leishmaniasis. Floods and droughts can also contaminate water sources and increase reliance on unsafe water, raising the risk of diarrhoeal diseases such as cholera, particularly where conflict and displacement have weakened basic services and health infrastructure.
• Livestock related value chains: Extreme heat, flooding and drought are projected to threaten cattle, sheep and goats by mid century. Heat stress reduces livestock productivity, affects reproduction and pasture quality and increases water requirements. Sedentary herds may face mortality during floods and droughts, while nomadic and semi nomadic herders may face greater competition with wildlife and other land and water users along migration corridors, as well as increased exposure to pests and diseases. Sennar State’s livestock face the greatest combined risk, followed by Gedaref State.
• Agriculture related value chains: Rising temperatures will reduce the period of optimal growing conditions for sorghum, sesame and millet during the June to October growing season. More frequent riverine and flash floods may cause sudden crop losses and damage settlements, roads and other infrastructure, while droughts reduce productivity over longer periods and can generate wider food security impacts. The effects vary by crop and production system: irrigated sorghum and groundnut cultivation in Sennar State show relative advantages, while rainfed production is more exposed to water shortages and excess rainfall. Distribution and trade networks, particularly in Sennar and Gedaref states, also face disruption from flooding.
• Forest and non forest timber product value chains: Climate extremes are likely to intensify the effects of overgrazing, overharvesting and illegal tree cutting. Non forest timber product harvests face the greatest additional climate stress in Blue Nile State, followed by Sennar State. Extreme heat and unpredictable rainfall pose particular risks to harvesters in Sennar and Gedaref states. Lower income groups and women involved in activities such as fuelwood collection and water collection may face disproportionate impacts because of their dependence on natural resources and limited alternatives.
• Human displacement: Climate related impacts threaten to compound already high levels of conflict driven internal displacement. By the end of 2024, conflict driven internal displacement affected 11.6 million people across Sudan. Flooding, drought and rainfall variability can increase food and water scarcity, undermine livelihoods and intensify competition over land and natural resources. In Sennar State, the average annual rate of displacement linked to flooding already exceeds one per cent of the population, or an estimated 21,000 people. Areas near converted or abandoned agricultural land, particularly along migratory corridors, may become conflict hotspots around DNP.

The profile shows that higher median annual precipitation will not necessarily reduce climate risk in Dinder National Park. Rising temperatures, higher evaporation and increasingly variable rainfall may produce more intense wet periods alongside recurrent droughts, placing additional pressure on ecosystems, livelihoods and already displaced communities. The analysis provides forward looking evidence to support resilience oriented planning and climate sensitive decision making in and around DNP.